Game 5 Recap: One Win Away

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FRANCIS TIOPIANCO


After the Suns went up 2-0 against the Bucks, I jokingly said that the Bucks were 2 wins away from being 2 wins away. Who would’ve thought that barely a week after, the Bucks are 1 win away from their first title since 1971, while the Suns are left reeling after they got punched in the mouth?


How it happened


Game 5 followed a familiar script that we’ve already seen in this postseason: one team jumps out to an early lead, but the other team remained resilient and weathered the early onslaught. The Sixers practically wrote the screenplay, but it also happened to the Jazz in Game 6 of the West semis and the Bucks in Game 5 against the Nets.

In fact, the Suns were the only team, until today, that had bucked (pun absolutely not intended) the trend. The Suns having a double-digit lead is as good as money in the bank. I was planning to do a Game 5 running diary as my first article for Blue Balls and noted at the 3:38 mark of the 1st quarter, after the refs called a goaltend against Giannis to give the Suns a 13-point lead, that the game's a wrap. As we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, CP3 is the best game manager in the planet. But the unthinkable happened: the Suns lost the lead with CP3 on the floor. It’s an extension of his Game 4 struggles and was plainly dumbfounding. It was as if the Monstars snuck into the building and sucked CP3’s talent.

 



Why it happened


For all the talk about how the three-pointer has revolutionized basketball, the most important shot for the Suns in the Finals is Chris Paul’s midrange jumper. When he’s hitting it, it opens up the entire Suns offense—makes it easier for DA to fetch lobs and for Bridges and Crowder to get clean looks. Of course, it’s not as simple as taking and making those shots. Credit the Bucks for giving CP3 different looks on pick-and-rolls, whether trapping or closing the space on drop coverages to take away those semi-open looks.

Which leads me to my next point: Booker scoring 40 points is not a winning formula. He’s shot the ball extremely well the last 2 games but he’s not letting the offense come to him. Only 6 of his 82 points came from three, and he’s been relying on a lot of ball-stopping isos and high-difficulty shots. I know he’s soaking in all the Kobe comparisons, but the law of averages is bound to catch up in Game 6 and, if Monty doesn’t reel him in, the Suns may have to wait another 28 years for their next Finals trip.

Much of the Suns’ success this year can be attributed to this simple formula: get Booker going early, then hand the keys over to Paul in the 4th quarter. It has paid dividends for them in the regular season and the playoffs, but the Suns lost their way in the last 2 games. CP3’s uncharacteristic play is a big part of that, with his erratic Game 4 followed by his lifeless second quarter earlier (which eerily reminded me of LeBron in 2011). But unlike what Bud has done with the Bucks, Monty didn’t stick to his guns. CP3 looked like he was back to his old self in the 4th quarter, but he allowed Booker to play hero ball in what would have been the go-ahead possession—they also had a timeout left—which then led to the steal-and-alley-oop sequence that may very well end up as the defining moment of the Finals.

 


What happens next

 

The Bucks are a very good home team, having lost only once at the Fiserv this postseason. Game 5 was the first game in the Finals that the Bucks got all of Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue going in the same game. That will give them confidence going into Game 6, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they wrap it up.

But I did pick the Suns to win it all and I’m prepared to sink with that ship. Despite the Bucks getting a nearly flawless game from their three stars, Game 5 remained winnable for the Suns. CP3 seemed to have rediscovered his form in the 4th quarter. It’s not an impossible task but the Suns must be more disciplined on offense. Booker needs to play more like Klay than Kobe. They need to keep DA, Bridges, and Crowder involved. But it wouldn’t be that simple—nothing ever is—and in the wise words of Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” 

The Bucks have shown that they can take it. We’ll see about the Suns.

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